Four Teams Are Fighting for the Top Seed in 2026

Duke, Michigan, Arizona, and Florida are projected as the No. 1 seeds heading into Selection Sunday. The gap between them is small, and conference tournament results will decide the order.

What we're watching: Duke has the inside track for the No. 1 overall seed, but needs to win the ACC Tournament to lock it up. Arizona and Michigan are right behind. Florida is the fourth 1-seed in most projections.

Published: March 13, 2026

Selection Sunday is two days away. The bracket will be revealed on March 15. And the fight for the top line is as tight as it's been in years.

Duke is the projected No. 1 overall seed in most bracketology models. The Blue Devils closed the regular season with a win over North Carolina and enter the ACC Tournament as the top seed. They've been consistently excellent all season - strong defensively, deep in the rotation, and playing their best basketball in February and March.

But Duke isn't a lock for the top overall spot. If they stumble in the ACC Tournament, Michigan or Arizona could jump them.

Michigan won the Big Ten and has been one of the most complete teams in the country. Tom Izzo's Michigan State squad pushed them in the regular season finale, but the Wolverines have the resume to earn a 1-seed regardless of their conference tournament result. Their strength of schedule is elite and their efficiency numbers are among the best in the country.

Arizona won the Big 12 regular season title - its first since joining the conference. The Wildcats beat UCF in their conference tournament opener and need a Big 12 Tournament title combined with losses above them to claim the No. 1 overall seed. They're safely on the 1-line either way.

Florida rounds out the projected 1-seeds. The Gators are the defending national champions and won a strong SEC once again. Todd Golden has sustained the program's momentum from last April's title run, and Walter Clayton Jr.'s return for a fifth year has been a stabilizing force.

Below the 1-line, the 2-seed picture includes UConn, Illinois, Michigan State, and Iowa State. All four have strong cases, and the conference tournament results over the next 48 hours could shake up the order.

The bubble is another story. Teams like Texas, Auburn, VCU, Missouri, and SMU are sweating out the final hours. Some of them need conference tournament wins on Friday or Saturday just to feel safe. The bubble this year has been called one of the weakest in recent memory - there aren't many strong at-large candidates fighting for the last few spots, but the ones who are on the edge have shaky resumes.

By Sunday evening, all 68 teams will know their fate. The bracket will be set. And the real fun starts.

In short: Duke, Michigan, Arizona, and Florida are projected as the four 1-seeds for the 2026 tournament. Conference tournament results over the next two days will determine the final order. The bubble is thin, with several teams needing wins to secure at-large bids.